The War Was the Headline. The Bond Market Was the Story.

“The world is burning. Stocks are collapsing. Everybody’s fighting over chips, data centers, the best AI. What is the real story?”

That’s how I opened my video on 15 September, because that’s how it felt. Burning tankers in the Gulf. Oil back above a hundred dollars. Every finance channel had the same thumbnail.

What actually happened

This war didn’t start in September. It started on 28 February 2026, when the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. On 8 September, US Central Command said it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, and a US naval blockade of Iranian oil exports was in force through September.

Oil reacted. Brent, the main global oil price, closed at $101.21 a barrel on 9 September. It started 2026 at about $61.

Anytime there is a war there’s stock uncertainty. Money flows out of stocks because people don’t know what to expect. But “collapsing” was the feeling, not the number. The S&P 500 (the 500 biggest US companies) closed at 7,747.71 on 3 September and at 7,585.73 on 15 September. That’s a drop of about 2%, a few weeks after its record close on 13 August.

The big institutions are always following the news by the minute. That’s why you have to take the news with a pinch of salt, because you don’t know what will happen next.

The number almost nobody was talking about

While the cameras were on the Gulf, the interest rate on US government bonds kept rising.

A bond is simply a loan. When you buy a US 10-year Treasury, you lend money to the US government for ten years and it pays you interest. That interest rate is called the yield.

According to the US Treasury, the 10-year yield was 4.19% on 2 January 2026. By 9 September it was 4.83%, and the Treasury’s end-of-day reading on 15 September was exactly 5.00%.

The next day the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, raised its key rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75–4.00%. The vote was 12–0, and it was the Fed’s first rate increase in about three years.

Why the price of money decides what your stocks are worth

When you buy a share, you’re buying a slice of a company’s future profits. A profit you’ll get in ten years is worth less than the same profit today. How much less depends on what you could earn safely in the meantime.

If a “risk-free” government loan pays 5%, every future dollar of profit gets discounted harder. That hits growth companies most, like software, AI and robotics, because most of their profits are expected far in the future.

Where the money went

“Bonds and gold are the safe haven.”

That’s what I said in the video about where the big money went. The data mostly backs it up. The Investment Company Institute tracks money flowing in and out of US funds. In every week from 26 August to 16 September, more money left stock funds than came in, and bond funds took in money every one of those weeks.

According to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs (funds that track the gold price) took in about $18 billion in August 2026, the second-largest monthly inflow on record.

One honest caveat: these figures cover all fund investors, not only big institutions. And by the week to 23 September, money was flowing back into stock funds.

Why owning things beats holding paper money

US inflation was 3.4% over the twelve months to August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

We all remember, well, maybe we don’t, but the United States currency used to be backed by gold. On 15 August 1971, President Nixon ended that. Since then, a dollar is backed by trust, not metal.

Total US federal debt passed $40 trillion in August 2026, and in fiscal year 2025 the net interest bill passed $1 trillion for the first time. Still, I think the talk of a total collapse is an overreaction to the reality. But borrowing more to pay old debt has a limit. If you have a credit card debt and you add another credit card to cover the previous debt, you’re just going to increase your debt.

“A house will always stay a house. A gold bar will always stay a gold bar.”

Because the dollar is becoming less worth, the price that you pay per house, per gold bar or per stock share will increase. When you are holding money in paper value, it will always decrease in value. If you have assets, you will still have those assets.

What I’m doing

I started at 16 years old trying forex and day trading, and then finally decided, like Warren Buffett, that the best investment is long-term strategic investment. I learned this the hard way, losing a lot of money.

I make these videos especially for people who don’t have $100,000 ready to invest right now. So this is my routine: having a plan means you dedicate a certain amount of money monthly or weekly, but at least it has to have an interval.

You don’t want to put money in a stock and then after a few days, a few months or even a few years have to say: “Oh, I need the money. I need to buy a new car.”

Most of my portfolio is in growth companies like software and AI, and robotics is the next area I’m watching closely. I also hold some steadier positions that safeguard me in times of turmoil.

I keep my expectations realistic. Not every company is going to double its value year over year. Actually, that almost never happens. If my investments grow at about 10% a year, I’m very happy. There will be dark days and there will be very nice days where profits are soaring through the roof.

In the end, you always have to be your own decision maker. Take some responsibility.

Want the opposite view? Read The Devil’s Advocate version of this story.

Keep reading

• Gold Is Falling. Here’s What the Big Money Actually Did
• Who Pays for Your AI? Following the Money Down the AI Ladder

I’m not a financial adviser. This is my own investing journey, not financial advice. Any investment decision is your own.